Inputs behind a model's estimate
Predictive ETAs typically combine the vessel's AIS position and speed, the distance left, recent waiting times at the destination port, past performance on the same service and planned transshipment connections. Some models also learn how a carrier's own ETAs have drifted on similar voyages. The result is often a date with a confidence range, and it tends to firm up as the ship nears port.
A second opinion on the carrier date
The carrier ETA is the line's own statement, and its arrival notices and terminal plans usually follow it. A predictive ETA is a second opinion. It can catch a slip before the carrier revises its schedule, but it can also be wrong when the model misses a schedule change, an omitted port call or a box rolled to another vessel. When the two disagree, find out why before replanning around either one.
Questions to ask before trusting a prediction
A predicted date is only as good as its inputs and the vessel it assumes your box is on. A prediction tied to a vessel the container never boarded is precise and wrong at the same time. Before acting on one, find out how it was built and how it has performed. CargoScope shows the latest ETA the carrier has published and does not swap in a modeled date of its own.
- Does it follow the container's actual vessel or just the service?
- Does it cover transshipment and inland legs, or only the port?
- How far off has it been on this lane recently?
Example
The carrier ETA for ONEU9051279 at Oakland still reads Monday, while a predictive model, seeing the vessel slow offshore and a queue at anchor, estimates Thursday.
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Questions
What does Predictive ETA mean?
A predictive ETA is an arrival estimate calculated by a model from inputs such as vessel positions, port congestion and past transit times, rather than read from the carrier's published schedule. It is an independent forecast that may differ from the carrier ETA.
Is a predictive ETA more accurate than the carrier ETA?
Sometimes, especially when a vessel is clearly running late and the carrier has not yet revised its schedule. It can also be less accurate when it misses changes only the carrier knows about, such as a rolled box or a skipped port.
Should I give my customer the predicted date or the carrier's?
Give the carrier ETA as the reference, and mention a predicted date only as a risk with its reason, such as congestion at the destination port. Customers plan better around one date and a stated risk than around two competing dates.